A k-variate Bernoulli distribution with k + 1 parameters is obtained as a shock model in which shocks are fatal to single components only or to all components simultaneously in a k-component system.

Some of the models used to forecast everything from financial trends to animal populations in an ecosystem are incorrect, ...

Figure 1: Likelihood-based methods are less accurate than maximum parsimony (MP) under heterogeneous conditions. Figure 2: Parsimony outperforms likelihood over a wide range of heterotachous ...